Sector Risk-Growth Scoring
A calculated risk and growth score for each Liberian economic sector, built from the current trade balance and national development data — ranked to prioritise investment decisions
Top priority sector
Mining & Resources
Priority 83
Highest growth score
Mining & Resources
Growth 80
Lowest risk score
Macroeconomic
Risk 12
Sectors scored
11
Trade FY 2026 · HDI 2023
Trade balance & external flows
FY 2026 annual figures (USD millions)
Development context
Human Development Index report · 2023
Growth vs Risk Positioning
Top-left = strong growth with contained risk. The shaded corner is the priority quadrant (growth ≥ 50, risk < 50). Bubble size reflects the priority score.
Risk-Growth Score by Sector
Ranked by risk-adjusted priority · select a sector for its calculation breakdown
| Rank | Sector | Growth score | Risk score | Priority | Positioning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mining & Resources | 80 | 13 | 83 | Priority — invest |
| 2 | Telecommunications | 62 | 19 | 70 | Priority — invest |
| 3 | Trade & Investment | 60 | 21 | 68 | Priority — invest |
| 4 | Banking & Finance | 61 | 22 | 68 | Priority — invest |
| 5 | Oil & Gas | 63 | 28 | 67 | Priority — invest |
| 6 | Manufacturing | 61 | 31 | 64 | Priority — invest |
| 7 | Agriculture | 55 | 25 | 63 | Priority — invest |
| 8 | Fisheries | 61 | 37 | 62 | Priority — invest |
| 9 | Cash Crops | 56 | 29 | 62 | Priority — invest |
| 10 | Macroeconomic | 44 | 12 | 62 | Stable — preserve |
| 11 | Forestry & Timber | 59 | 36 | 61 | Priority — invest |
Calculation breakdown — Mining & Resources
Revenue FY 2023–2026 · CAGR 12.5% · volatility 1.9% · share of national revenue 25%
Priority score
83
Priority — investGrowth score — 80/100
Revenue trend · 40% weight
Compounded growth of sector revenue across all recorded years
Share momentum · 20% weight
Change in the sector share of national revenue
Trade conditions · 25% weight
Export cover of imports and external inflows, weighted by export exposure
Development capacity · 15% weight
HDI level and momentum — the enabling environment for growth
Risk score — 13/100
Revenue volatility · 35% weight
Standard deviation of year-on-year revenue change
Concentration · 20% weight
A small share of national revenue means thinner buffers
Trade exposure · 25% weight
Import dependence against the trade deficit, or weak export cover for exporters
Development gap · 20% weight
Low HDI and schooling raise operating risk
Growth score = 40% revenue trend + 20% share momentum + 25% trade conditions + 15% development capacity. Risk score = 35% revenue volatility + 20% concentration + 25% trade exposure + 20% development gap. Priority = 60% growth + 40% of (100 − risk). All scores run 0–100 (higher risk = riskier). Trade conditions use the FY 2026 balance, external inflows and FDI; development capacity uses the 2023 HDI report and its three-year trend.
Primary sources
- CBL
- — Central Bank of Liberia: Annual Report and Monthly Economic Review: monetary policy, exchange rates, banking soundness, balance of payments
- MFDP
- — Ministry of Finance and Development Planning: National Budget, budget execution reports, public debt and fiscal transfers
- LISGIS
- — Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services: 2022 Population and Housing Census, consumer price index, external trade and household surveys
- LRA
- — Liberia Revenue Authority: Annual Report: tax and non-tax collections, taxpayer register, filing and payment compliance
- IMF
- — International Monetary Fund: Article IV consultation reports, World Economic Outlook and fiscal/debt analysis
- World Bank
- — World Bank Group: World Development Indicators, Liberia Economic Update, debt and poverty statistics
- UNDP
- — United Nations Development Programme: Human Development Report and its index components
- WHO
- — World Health Organization: Global Health Observatory: mortality, immunization and health-system estimates
Each figure above is attributed to the publishing institution and its reporting period. Derived and AI-generated forecasts are labelled separately from published data.